As Pierre Poilievre Tanks in the Polls, Disgruntled Conservatives are Floating the Idea of Alberta Joining the United States

Right-wing figures are floating Alberta secessionism if Mark Carney’s Liberals win the federal election, threatening a referendum on independence if the election doesn’t turn out the way they hope it does.

As Pierre Poilievre’s chances of winning continue dropping, right-wing voices across the province, from fringey convoy figures to the opposition leaders alike, are starting to bang the drum for Alberta’s separation from the rest of Canada.

Alberta sovereignty is a vaguely defined idea with conflicting visions on what form it would take, be it greater independence from Ottawa, full on nationhood, or complete integration with the United States, but none of this appears to be stopping western commentators from threatening it should Poilievre fail to win the next election.

A so-called “Referendum Rally” for Alberta independence is planned for May 1.

Listed speakers include right-wing influencer Marty Belanger, Freedom Convoy lawyer Keith Wilson and controversial Queens University law professor Bruce Pardy. The list also includes figures from Alberta’s independence movement, including the Republican Party of Alberta’s Cam Davies (a key figure in Jason Kenney’s “kamikaze candidate” scandal) and separatist author Michael Wagner.

Referendum Rally poster

Former opposition leader Preston Manning has also added his voice to the chorus warning of Alberta separation should Mark Carney’s Liberals form government, writing in the Globe and Mail last week that a vote for anyone other than Poilievre is a “vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.”

“Voters, particularly in central and Atlantic Canada, need to recognize that a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession,” Manning wrote. “If you couldn’t care less about the concerns or actions of Western Canada, then ignore this unsolicited advice” Manning wrote.

“Understand that separation of the resources-based economic engine of Western Canada from what’s left of the rest of Canada will have dire economic and social consequences for the latter.”

Manning, the former head of the right-wing Manning Centre (now named the “Canada Strong and Free Network”)once penned a report for the Alberta government where public health officials would stand trial in a fictional scenario to punish them for their response to the pandemic.

Manning isn’t the only figure floating the idea of separation.

Convoy influencer Marty Up North used his platform of 128,000 followers to call confederation a drag on Alberta.

“I’ve been pro Alberta independence for over a decade. Up until recently, I didn’t think it would happen in my lifetime. That’s changed in the last 3 months. I believe Confederation is a failed experiment. Worse. I believe Confederation is a drag on Alberta.”

I’ve been pro Alberta independence for over a decade.

Up until recently, I didn’t think it would happen in my lifetime.

That’s changed in the last 3 months. I believe Confederation is a failed experiment. Worse. I believe Confederation is a drag on Alberta.

The events of… https://t.co/C19Ft9wA9q pic.twitter.com/y9iK12Bnom

— Martyupnorth®- Unacceptable Fact Checker (@Martyupnorth_2) March 30, 2025

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith threatened a “national unity crisis” following a meeting with Prime Minister Mark Carney late last month.

Later speaking to conservative commentator Ben Shapiro during a fundraiser for the climate change denialist organization PragerU in Florida, Smith took aim at the federal government.

“The Federal government has taxed and attempted to landlock our natural resource and penalize our energy and agriculture producers,” Smith said in a recording obtained by Canada’s National Observer. “It’s time to tell the federal government, no more. Canada, and Alberta included, does not need more punitive carbon taxes, does not need emissions caps, does not need net zero power grids.”

Shapiro has previously mocked Canadian sovereignty, calling for Canada to be the Puerto Rico of the north.

Figures associated with the Freedom Convoy movement have added their voices to the pro-Alberta independence movement. Convoy lawyer Keith Wilson, one of the “Referendum Rally” speakers and a main spokesperson for Freedom Convoy leaders during the occupation of Ottawa, has expressed support for Alberta independence.

Another voice platforming the idea of Alberta statehood is political commentator Rachel Parker, former contributor to the conservative media company True North. Parker has used her YouTube platform to advance the idea. This included an interview with Alberta lawyer Jeffrey Rath, who is a contributor to the sovereigntist-leaning Alberta Prosperity Project and recently visited Washington DC to pitch Alberta statehood.

“Canada left me a long time ago,” Rath told Parker. “I don’t really consider myself to be Canadian anymore, I consider myself an Albertan, full stop.”

Parker interviewed another member of the APP delegation to DC, Denis Modry, who clarified the distinction between separatism and sovereignty by laying out a vision of an Alberta that isn’t affected by Ottawa.

“Sovereignty means self governance. It means there is no higher power other than your government structures,” Modry said. “We lose our sovereignty when we are totally controlled by the federal government.”

David Parker, Rachel Parker’s spouse and the leader of right wing Alberta activist group Take Back Alberta which credits itself with bringing Danielle Smith to power, has also been outspoken on the subject of sovereignty, once claiming on a podcast that Canadian identity is little more than a “misplaced sense of superiority.”

David Parker leads the right wing group Take Back Alberta, which credits itself with bringing Danielle Smith to power.

In a posting on Take Back Alberta’s Telegram channel in March, Parker wrote that Alberta has more in common with Americans than Canadians:

“If anything, Albertans share much more in common with Americans than Ontarians, let alone the Québécois. Albertans are entrepreneurial, they value personal responsibility and merit, and most importantly they value freedom. This is why, when looking at the polling, Alberta (and to a lesser extent Saskatchewan) stand alone. They are the only provinces that are not reflecting this trend. Everywhere else in Canada is exposing their true colours. A country whose whole identity is born out of a misplaced sense of superiority, that is actually born out of envy.”

Smith until recently has shied away from calling a referendum on Alberta independence, stating that her mandate is to “fix Canada” instead. She has recently proposed a post election panel on an independence referendum.

Maxime Bernier, leader of the People’s Party of Canada, says he welcomes a referendum on independence for the province.

“Speaking about a referendum in Alberta, I’m welcoming that. You need to have a referendum,” Bernier said. “If you have a referendum, I will be the only national politician saying ‘vote yes’”