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Analysis

Doug Ford’s Pollster Has Been Quietly Polling Ontarians About Calling a Self-Serving Early Election Over the Last Year

Ford adviser’s poll asked if Ontario should hold an election before the province’s economy suffers heavy job losses and higher prices in 2025

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is getting ready to call an early election and send voters back to the polls mid-way through his second term, but Ford has been working quietly behind-the-scenes towards this moment long before the recent US Election or Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Rumours have swirled for over a year that the conservative premier wants to call an early election to avoid being thrown out of office by jilted voters in 2026 if federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre manages to form government. Ford secured a second term only two and a half years ago in the summer of 2022.

Ontario’s official opposition suggests this would only create a leadership vacuum and plunge the province into chaos at a time when half a million jobs are on the line. Marit Stiles, leader of the Ontario NDP, explicitly accuses Ford of protecting his job at the expense of the jobs for Ontario workers.

With an unnecessary early election estimated to cost Ontario taxpayers $175 million, political observers warn Ford risks a backlash if voters perceive an early election to be motivated by pure self-interest – one reason Trump’s second presidency and tariff threats create an enticing opportunity for Ford.

Following Trump’s inauguration this week, an internal memo from Ford’s office was conveniently leaked to Ontario’s big media outlets, including CBC News, Global News, The Globe and Mail and Toronto Star, suggesting an early election is suddenly needed to give Ford a “strong mandate” to deal with Trump.

“Moments ago, on live television, the president openly commented about his plan to bring 25% tariffs against Canada as of February 1st,” the conveniently leaked email states. “As we enter a period of unparalleled economic risk and critical negotiations, our government will need a strong mandate from the people to stand up for Ontario.”

Yet Ford’s team has been quietly laying the groundwork for an early election over the last year, long before it was even clear Trump would win a second presidency.

Over the holidays, Campaign Research, a polling firm run by Ford’s top adviser Nick Kouvalis, was polling Ontarians about the idea of calling an early election weeks before Trump’s Inauguration Day remarks.

A Campaign Research poll from January 3, 2025 reviewed by PressProgress asks respondents whether they’ve heard recent news reports that “Doug Ford might call an early election instead of waiting until June 2026” and whether they agree or disagree that Ford should do that.

Source: Campaign Research

 The poll also asks pointed questions about Trump and the threat of tariffs.

“With Donald Trump being sworn in as the President of the United States and the threat of tariffs and other issues arising, which is closer to your own view?” the poll asks. Respondents are given one of two options: a “clear mandate and four years of stability for future negotiations with the USA and President Trump” or “wait until June 2026 to have an election.”

Another question asks if respondents are willing to “wait until June 2026 despite economic conditions deteriorating and the threat of new tariffs and higher prices and unemployment in 2025,” suggesting Ford could benefit politically by avoiding the economic fallout from a trade war with Trump.

Source: Campaign Research

Campaign Research did not respond to questions from PressProgress about who commissioned the poll or what its ultimate findings were.

This is not the first time Ford’s adviser has posed those questions to Ontarians. As early as last summer, Campaign Research was polling Ontarians about the idea of calling an early election.

Last fall, the Globe and Mail reported that Kouvalis confided to a political panel that another reason Ford could benefit from an early election is that it would help get an election out of the way before any potential criminal charges stemming from an RCMP probe into Ford’s $8 billion Greenbelt land swap scandal.

Current and former staff inside the Premier’s Office have been interviewed by police in recent months.

According to an Abacus Data poll last summer, 44% of Ontarians said they would be “unhappy” if Ford called an early election, including 19% who would be “very angry” – only 9% of Ontarians said they would be “happy” while 8% said they would be “very happy.”

The last time an Ontario Premier called an early election in Ontario was in 1990 and saw David Peterson’s Ontario Liberal government suffer a backlash leading to the incumbent government being replaced by Bob Rae’s Ontario NDP government.

 

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Luke LeBrun
Editor
Luke LeBrun is the Editor of PressProgress. His reporting focuses on the federal political scene, right-wing politics as well as issues in technology, media and culture.

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